WAR IN THE AIR, MATH ON THE GROUND: ECOLOGICAL MODELING OF DRONE–FIGHTER JET ENGAGEMENTS

Bogdan-Gabriel ANDRIEȘ, Marius POȘA, Andrada RUNCEANU

Abstract


In recent decades, assessments of military capability in armed conflicts have increasingly relied on intelligence gathered by specialized structures on both sides to estimate the probability of operational success. This study explores the application of the Lotka–Volterra differential equations to a contemporary configuration of modern warfare: drone–aircraft confrontation. The central hypothesis asserts that success in large-scale operations is significantly influenced by direct investments in drone and aircraft production capacities. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of the Lotka–Volterra framework in analyzing how these production and interaction dynamics affect operational outcomes. Although traditionally employed to model predator–prey systems, these equations can be adapted to describe the evolution of military capabilities in armed conflict and to support parameter-based strategic recommendations.

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